Social, demographic and behavioural determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a case-control study carried out during mass community testing of asymptomatic individuals in South Wales, December 2020.

Between 21 November and 22 December 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 community testing pilot took place in the South Wales Valleys. We conducted a case-control study in adults taking part in the pilot using an anonymous online questionnaire. Social, demographic and behavioural factors were compared in people with a positive lateral flow test (cases) and a sample of negatives (controls). A total of 199 cases and 2621 controls completed a questionnaire (response rates: 27.1 and 37.6% respectively). Following adjustment, cases were more likely to work in the hospitality sector (aOR 3.39, 95% CI 1.43-8.03), social care (aOR 2.63, 1.22-5.67) or healthcare (aOR 2.31, 1.29-4.13), live with someone self-isolating due to contact with a case (aOR 3.07, 2.03-4.62), visit a pub (aOR 2.87, 1.11-7.37) and smoke or vape (aOR 1.54, 1.02-2.32). In this community, and at this point in the epidemic, reducing transmission from a household contact who is self-isolating would have the biggest public health impact (population-attributable fraction: 0.2). As restrictions on social mixing are relaxed, hospitality venues will become of greater public health importance, and those working in this sector should be adequately protected. Smoking or vaping may be an important modifiable risk factor.

Case Report: Idiopathic Subcutaneous Thrombotic Vasculopathy.

Lower extremity ulcers have significant morbidity, with treatment determined by the underlying disorder. Reported is a 32-year-old female presenting with small skin nodules and bruises across her legs 4 weeks following her second COVID vaccination. These lesions progressed into large, necrotic ulcers over several months. Initial work-up showed widespread pannicular thrombotic vasculopathy with ischemic skin necrosis. The tissue was negative for calcification on Von Kossa histochemistry, and a working diagnosis of subcutaneous thrombotic vasculopathy was suggested. The ulcers progressed despite treatments with corticosteroids, therapeutic anticoagulation, intravenous immunoglobulin, plasmapheresis, sodium thiosulfate, wound care, and repeat debridement. Later debridement specimens demonstrated rare vascular and pannicular calcifications. This finding supports the hypothesis that subcutaneous thrombotic vasculopathy is a precursor to calciphylaxis, the patient's current working diagnosis. However, based on the patient's entire clinical picture, a definitive diagnosis has yet to be found. This report highlights the challenges of working with rare diseases and the importance of multidisciplinary cooperation.

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020.

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic's death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R 0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia's age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020 [version 2;peer review: 2 approved]

Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number ( R 0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R 0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia’s age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.

Intensity of COVID-19 in care homes following hospital discharge in the early stages of the UK epidemic.

BACKGROUND: defining features of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries were the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected and the difficulty in preventing the introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the start of the pandemic, prior to widespread testing, was the transfer of patients from hospitals that were experiencing high levels of nosocomial events. METHODS: we tested the hypothesis that hospital discharge events increased the intensity of care home cases using a national individually linked health record cohort in Wales, UK. We monitored 186,772 hospital discharge events over the period from March to July 2020, tracking individuals to 923 care homes and recording the daily case rate in the homes populated by 15,772 residents. We estimated the risk of an increase in case rates following exposure to a hospital discharge using multi-level hierarchical logistic regression and a novel stochastic Hawkes process outbreak model. FINDINGS: in regression analysis, after adjusting for care home size, we found no significant association between hospital discharge and subsequent increases in care home case numbers (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.90). Risk factors for increased cases included care home size, care home resident density and provision of nursing care. Using our outbreak model, we found a significant effect of hospital discharge on the subsequent intensity of cases. However, the effect was small and considerably less than the effect of care home size, suggesting the highest risk of introduction came from interaction with the community. We estimated that approximately 1.8% of hospital discharged patients may have been infected. INTERPRETATION: there is growing evidence in the UK that the risk of transfer of COVID-19 from the high-risk hospital setting to the high-risk care home setting during the early stages of the pandemic was relatively small. Although access to testing was limited to initial symptomatic cases in each care home at this time, our results suggest that reduced numbers of discharges, selection of patients and action taken within care homes following transfer all may have contributed to the mitigation. The precise key transmission routes from the community remain to be quantified.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia.

BACKGROUND: While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped. METHODS: We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. RESULTS: Burial rates increased during the pandemic, averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at a 2.2-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. When scaled to plausible range of baseline crude death rates, the excess death toll between January and September 2020 was 3200-11 800. Compared with Barakaat Cemetery Committee's burial records, our estimates were lower. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates considerable underestimation of the health effects of COVID-19 in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.

Burden of nosocomial COVID-19 in Wales: results from a multicentre retrospective observational study of 2508 hospitalised adults.

The burden of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection remains poorly defined. We report on the outcomes of 2508 adults with molecularly-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 admitted across 18 major hospitals, representing over 60% of those hospitalised across Wales between 1 March and 1 July 2020. Inpatient mortality for nosocomial infection ranged from 38% to 42%, consistently higher than participants with community-acquired infection (31%-35%) across a range of case definitions. Those with hospital-acquired infection were older and frailer than those infected within the community. Nosocomial diagnosis occurred a median of 30 days following admission (IQR 21-63), suggesting a window for prophylactic or postexposure interventions, alongside enhanced infection control measures.

Risk factors for outbreaks of COVID-19 in care homes following hospital discharge: A national cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The population of adult residential care homes has been shown to have high morbidity and mortality in relation to COVID-19. METHODS: We examined 3115 hospital discharges to a national cohort of 1068 adult care homes and subsequent outbreaks of COVID-19 occurring between 22 February and 27 June 2020. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the impact of time-dependent exposure to hospital discharge on incidence of the first known outbreak, over a window of 7-21 days after discharge, and adjusted for care home characteristics, including size and type of provision. RESULTS: A total of 330 homes experienced an outbreak, and 544 homes received a discharge over the study period. Exposure to hospital discharge was not associated with a significant increase in the risk of a new outbreak (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.89, 1.47, P = .29) after adjusting for care home characteristics. Care home size was the most significant predictor. Hazard ratios (95% CI) in comparison with homes of <10 residents were as follows: 3.40 (1.99, 5.80) for 10-24 residents; 8.25 (4.93, 13.81) for 25-49 residents; and 17.35 (9.65, 31.19) for 50+ residents. When stratified for care home size, the outbreak rates were similar for periods when homes were exposed to a hospital discharge, in comparison with periods when homes were unexposed. CONCLUSION: Our analyses showed that large homes were at considerably greater risk of outbreaks throughout the epidemic, and after adjusting for care home size, a discharge from hospital was not associated with a significant increase in risk.